According to NASA, there is a strong possibility that space debris will fall to Earth on Saturday, May 10, 2025. “Your chances of winning the lottery are much higher than being hit by this space debris,” said a Flemish researcher.
Launched in 1972 as part of a mission to Venus, the Kosmos 482 spacecraft broke into four pieces and has been orbiting the planet ever since. One of these pieces—likely the lander probe—is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere around Saturday, May 10, and survive the descent without burning up, ultimately crashing to Earth.
However, it’s impossible to predict the exact landing spot. The impact is expected to be minimal, with the remains most likely falling into the ocean, as 70% of Earth’s surface is covered by water. “The odds of winning the lottery are much higher than being struck by this debris,” emphasized Stijn Lemmens, a Flemish researcher affiliated with the European Space Agency (ESA), in an interview with the BBC.
The spherical piece of the spacecraft is about one meter wide and weighs nearly half a ton. Since it was built to withstand the extreme heat of Venus, it is expected to survive the re-entry through Earth’s atmosphere.
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