The Iranian file is expected to witness further developments in the coming days following the European Union’s decision to designate the Iranian Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization. The move was firmly rejected by Tehran, which stated that it is fully prepared to respond to any potential attack, particularly amid reports of the advance of the US naval fleet toward the region.
Speaking on Friday, former diplomat Abdallah Abidi commented on these developments, stressing that the European stance is “extremely delicate” and requires careful analysis. According to him, the EU’s decision primarily aims to send a political message to the United States, making clear that the disagreement is with Donald Trump’s policies, not with America as a strategic ally. He underlined that the transatlantic partnership remains essential, but is currently strained by what he described as Trump’s tendency to deviate from shared political principles.
Abidi noted that wars and major geopolitical tensions are often driven by economic interests. In his view, Trump has contributed to creating instability in global economic relations, affecting several countries and regions, including Canada, Russia and others. He argued that the European decision is largely symbolic rather than practical, pointing out that Iranian security and military officials are unlikely to hold assets or financial interests in Europe that could realistically be frozen. The move, he said, is mainly intended to signal political alignment with Washington, without concrete operational impact.
The former diplomat emphasized that this European position should not be interpreted as implicit support for a potential US-led war against Iran. He explained that the threat of war is being used primarily as a deterrent mechanism aimed at protecting Israel and preventing any Iranian military action against it. He added that the pro-Israel lobby plays a significant role in shaping US policy and in mobilizing American military power in the region.
Regarding the likelihood of an actual conflict, Abidi called for caution. He considers a war to be unlikely at this stage, given the number of regional and international actors whose interests would be severely affected, including Russia, Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan and China. He also stressed that the region as a whole, including key countries such as Saudi Arabia, does not support military escalation against Iran, suggesting that the situation requires time and careful observation.
Finally, commenting on the movement of the US naval fleet toward Iran, Abidi referred to what is known as “gunboat diplomacy”, a strategy based on the display of naval power to exert political pressure. He argued that the situation remains unclear, especially amid recent discussions about a possible Iranian nuclear test. In this context, the United States appears to be demonstrating strength in order to avoid having to use it, particularly following Iran’s recent strike against Israel, which, according to Abidi, led Tel Aviv to seek direct US support for the first time in its history.
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