On Friday, January 23, 2026, environmental and climate expert Adel Hentati provided an in-depth analysis of the weather conditions expected in Tunisia over the coming days, highlighting the increasing influence of polar air masses on the Mediterranean region as a result of global climate change.
Hentati explained that the unusual frequency of polar air intrusions this year is one of the clearest signs of ongoing climate change. He cited the recent heavy rainfall episodes, which occurred over short periods and exceeded the capacity of drainage infrastructure, making human intervention ineffective in limiting their impact.
According to the expert, current conditions reflect a “normal” winter pattern. However, starting from this evening, and based on data from the National Institute of Meteorology and the European Copernicus Climate Service, Tunisia will be affected by a new, very cold air mass, though less intense than the previous one. Temperatures within this mass could drop to between -10 and -12 degrees Celsius at higher altitudes, with relatively low initial humidity.
As this air mass moves across the Atlantic Ocean, it will absorb moisture before reaching North Africa, bringing rainfall to elevated regions such as Tabarka, Aïn Draham, Le Kef and Siliana, with precipitation amounts estimated at around 30 millimeters.
Hentati added that the same air mass will later pass over the Mediterranean Sea, whose waters remain relatively warm. This will allow it to recharge with humidity and, under the influence of atmospheric pressure systems near the Mediterranean basin, return to generate light coastal rainfall, mainly in the form of drizzle, without causing floods or severe runoff.
Temperatures are expected to remain below seasonal averages, especially at night. Daytime highs will range between 12 and 14 degrees Celsius in most regions, while inland areas will record between 8 and 9 degrees.
Strong winds are also forecast, as the movement of air between high- and low-pressure systems could generate gusts reaching up to 50 km/h.
Regarding already saturated areas such as Nabeul, Sidi Bou Said and the Greater Tunis region, Hentati noted that the heavy rains recorded since the beginning of the previous month have left the soil fully soaked, with groundwater levels rising to the surface in some low-lying zones.
In contrast, northwestern Tunisia has received moderate rainfall, meaning that dam reservoirs have not yet reached optimal levels. Rain expected on Saturday, Sunday and Monday will mainly affect the northwestern regions and dam areas, and is hoped to provide much-needed replenishment of the country’s water reserves.
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