Many questions continue to surround the situation in Libya following the assassination of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, who was killed at his residence under still unclear circumstances. In a statement to Tunisie Numérique on Wednesday, February 4, 2026, political analyst and thinker Farid Alibi offered a detailed reading of the possible implications of the incident for Libya’s future.
According to Alibi, understanding the assassination requires addressing two key questions: Who benefits from his death? and Why did it occur at this particular moment?
A Threat to Internal Power Structures
Alibi believes Libya is facing a structural crisis linked to tensions between competing authorities and institutions, especially as long-delayed elections remain stalled. Several governing bodies, he noted, appear to have exceeded their legal mandates.
In this context, Saif al-Islam had recently regained political prominence. Backed by a growing popular base and supported by influential figures associated with the former regime, he had positioned himself as a presidential candidate.
For the analyst, this momentum posed a direct threat to Libyan warlords who control various cities and territories. “The return of the former system through elections would have meant the restoration of a centralized state,” he explained.
Regional and International Interests at Stake
Alibi also suggested that regional and global actors could benefit from the assassination. Saif al-Islam had repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with Libya’s current governance, arguing that the country was being influenced by foreign powers, including the United States, the European Union, and Turkey.
His potential election, Alibi argued, might have signaled a return to stronger national sovereignty—an outcome that could alarm both internal factions and external stakeholders. “There appears to be a convergence of interests between domestic and foreign forces, which may explain how this assassination came about,” he said.
Limited Domestic Impact but Regional Concerns
Despite the gravity of the event, Alibi predicts that its internal repercussions may remain limited, given Libya’s already fragmented landscape. The country currently hosts multiple governments, armies, and parliaments, while militias maintain effective control over several areas.
Regarding neighboring countries, Alibi noted that regional states have sought to contain potential spillover, referencing a recent meeting involving Tunisia, Algeria, and Egypt. However, he warned that if tensions escalate, Libya could become a launchpad for broader regional confrontations.
Such instability, he added, could be exploited to reshape the geopolitical balance in the Maghreb and advance competing agendas tied to Libya’s natural resources, its strategic position along major trade routes, and other sensitive geopolitical issues.
Alibi concluded by urging neighboring states to remain vigilant to prevent what he described as the “Libyan fire” from spreading beyond the country’s borders.
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