The escalation of threats by the United States against Iran, including warnings of a potentially devastating war, continues to raise concerns about a possible military confrontation in the Middle East. While Tehran has vowed a harsh response to any attack, several analysts believe the current phase may remain largely confined to psychological and media warfare, serving Washington’s strategic and economic interests in the region. However, the movement of US naval forces toward Iranian waters has fueled speculation about a possible shift from rhetoric to action.
In this context, political analyst and writer Boulbaba Salem said on Wednesday that relations with President Donald Trump have entered a phase of “strategic uncertainty,” particularly regarding the Iranian dossier. According to him, Trump’s approach is guided by the “America First” doctrine, the primacy of national interests and the use of force to impose faits accomplis, often in disregard of international law and the post-World War II multilateral order.
Salem argues that Trump has effectively revived an imperial logic based on the law of the strongest, seeking to secure US interests and control strategic resources worldwide. With regard to Iran, he noted that Washington is exerting intense pressure mainly through psychological and media campaigns, even as Trump has recently called on Tehran to return to negotiations “before war breaks out.”
The analyst questioned the legitimacy of such threats in the absence of any mandate from the UN Security Council, describing them as a form of political bullying. He recalled that similar methods had been used against countries such as Venezuela and even in disputes involving Greenland, targeting both adversaries and allies alike. In his view, Trump recognizes no real partners, only subordinates, and respects only power.
Salem further stated that for Trump, international politics is not a field of dialogue and cooperation but a battlefield governed by a winner–loser logic, similar to business competition. The US president, he added, tends to create successive crises to divert attention from previous ones, as seen in the Venezuelan, Greenland and now Iranian cases.
Domestically, this strategy has also sparked growing criticism in the United States, where voices warn that such policies could ultimately endanger American security. Salem believes Trump acts under the influence of powerful lobbies, including those of energy, finance, arms and pharmaceuticals, embodying what he described as the “most extreme form of capitalist aggression.”
Regarding the possibility of a military strike against Iran in the coming days, the analyst said Trump favors swift, short wars aimed at quick gains, and is reluctant to be drawn into prolonged conflicts. He recalled the failure of this approach during the brief “12-day war” episode, stressing that Trump, known for his impulsive style, does not want to entangle the United States in a long confrontation, especially given Iran’s advanced ballistic and hypersonic missile capabilities.
Salem concluded that Washington fears a regional war that could threaten global energy supplies, which explains the opposition of key regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Oman to any open conflict. As for China and Russia, both allies of Iran, they would prioritize regional stability to protect their strategic interests, without directly engaging in a military confrontation with the United States.
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