Amid the rapid demographic changes in Tunisia, the fertility rate has remarkably declined in recent years, reaching between 1.6 and 1.7 children per woman in 2023, according to experts during a roundtable held at the National Office for Family and Population Affairs, titled “A Reading of Demographic Changes in Tunisia from a Gender Equality Perspective.”
Migration, Divorce, and Delayed Marriage: Key Factors
Mohamed Douaji, the CEO of the National Office for Family and Population Affairs, clarified that the increasing rate of migration of Tunisians abroad, the growing divorce rates, and the decline in marriage rates are among the main reasons for the drop in the fertility rate.
Douaji pointed out that maintaining a fertility rate between 2 and 2.4 children per woman is ideal for maintaining a demographic balance that guarantees a young population structure.
Young Tunisians Choosing Independence and Fewer Children
International expert in population and development issues, Hafedh Chkir, explained that young people’s reluctance to have many children is related to their desire for personal independence, focusing on developing their personal projects, and continuing higher education instead of entering marriage at an early age.
Despite the decline in the fertility rate, Chkir believes it is still better compared to the rates in European countries, and he predicts that the rate will not surpass 2% in the coming years, due to the new values embraced by the youth.
He added that the decline in fertility rates in Tunisia dates back to the early 20th century, with the establishment of family planning programs, the expansion of media education, the spread of education, and the change in family patterns. He stressed the importance of continuing awareness programs to ensure good reproductive health for youth and to combat misinformation about sexual life from the internet or peers. He also remarked that the family, school, and health professionals should be the primary sources of reference for young people.
Patriarchal Mentality Still a Barrier to Women’s Empowerment
In her presentation on social and demographic standards from a gender perspective, social sciences researcher Dora Mahfoudh said that Tunisia has made significant progress in supporting women’s rights since independence. However, these advances remain below the current aspirations of women.
She pointed out that poverty and unemployment rates among women in Tunisia are twice those of men, as well as the high rates of violence and murder against women.
Mahfoudh added that the persistence of the patriarchal mentality, which grants men privileges in society, contributes to the delay of women’s access to decision-making positions and political offices, limiting their ability to continue their education or obtain jobs matching their qualifications.
She confirmed that the percentage of female students in Tunisian universities exceeds 66%, yet women still face difficulties in entering the job market and competing for high-level positions due to some men’s refusal to accept the idea of women achieving equality and success in professional fields.
A Complex Picture of Demographic Transformation
In light of these intertwined factors, it appears that the decline in the fertility rate in Tunisia is not just a number in demographic reports but a deep reflection of the social, cultural, and economic transformations taking place in the country.
Between the youth’s aspirations for independence and delayed marriage, difficult economic conditions, and the patriarchal mentality still hindering women’s empowerment, all these factors combine to shape a new demographic landscape that requires thoughtful analysis and integrated strategies.
What Tunisia needs today is not only to maintain demographic balance but also to build comprehensive social and economic policies that respond to the aspirations of the new generations, ensure gender equality, and provide sustainable support for health and reproductive awareness. Only in this way can Tunisia look forward to a more balanced future, ensuring the sustainability and prosperity of its society.
