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The die is cast… or nearly. The express electoral campaign, hardly 4 weeks old, dictated by a dissolution which shocked everyone (except the father of the President of the Republic), ends in a few hours. 48 hours before the second round – this Sunday, July 7 – of the early legislative elections, the polling institutes disclose their latest opinion surveys, in a context of political uncertainty which has never been so thick under the 5th Republic…
The National Rally (RN) came out on top, very clearly, in the first round, ahead of the New Popular Front (NFP) and the presidential majority – Together. Chronicle of a secure victory for the far right in the second round. Then woes: Head of State Emmanuel Macron pulls the Republican Front out of his hat to block the RN, a card that had been put away since the second round of the 2002 presidential election, between the late Jacques Chirac and Jean-Marie Le Pen. Will the anti-RN dike still be held on July 7?
According to the collection of surveys from Ipsos, Elabe, OpinionWay and Ifop-Fiducial, the plethora of departures between the two rounds completely changes the situation. Confronted with the powerful front of the left, the centre and a fringe of the right, the RN is not certain of triumphing an absolute majority in Parliament. Let us recall that Jordan Bardella had made it a condition for governing the country, even if Marine Le Pen strongly moderated by evoking poaching to compose a majority.
According to the different surveys published this Friday, July 5, the RN remains a leader in voting intentions, but its parliamentary majority would be relative, in both the low and high ranges. Bardella and his allies (the Republican dissidents led by Eric Ciotti) are credited with 170 to 230 seats, thus significantly far from the threshold of an absolute majority (289 deputies). The NFP would hold up well with 145-190 seats according to surveys, while Ensemble would achieve a feat given Macron’s unpopularity: from 118 to 162 elected officials.
According to studies, the big winner of the anti-RN “coalition” would be the presidential majority, boosted by left-wing voters, this left the head of state believed to be dead and buried since he dumped it ( the Socialist Party) in 2017 to set up his movement.
The fact remains that these trends must be firmly put into perspective, they remain what they are: a snapshot of the moment. No one can read the minds of voters and there is nothing more challenging for pollsters to understand than vote reports. The 2022 legislative elections have given us sufficient lessons in this area. The RN had shattered all predictions by winning 89 deputy seats, while the institutes credited it with 40 to 50. So be careful…
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