Following President Abdelmadjid Tebboune’s announcement, the matter appears to be settled once and for all. The Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP)—which is ultimately set to link Nigeria’s gas fields to Europe via Algeria—is now firmly on track. But what if Algiers stumbled? What if the mega-project stalled or collapsed altogether, blocked by logistical, financial or political obstacles, or any number of other hurdles? That is the scenario Morocco hopes for. The kingdom clings to it like a castaway clinging to a branch. But that will not happen—never—according to a prominent American researcher…
Geoff D. Porter, a North Africa risk-management expert, has shed light on this energy infrastructure project, which could take the Euro-African—and even global—energy market into a new dimension. Porter heads North Africa Risk Consulting (NARCO). He weighed in on the project’s technical feasibility and economic impact. His remarks are likely to bolster the determination of Algiers and Abuja, but they will do little to lift morale in Rabat.
Porter believes the TSGP is not only fully achievable, but also aligns perfectly with the European Union’s current energy needs. In his view, the pipeline is not a technical mountain to climb. “The project is technically viable and meets modern safety and efficiency requirements,” the researcher said.
He stressed that the pipeline’s scale—4,130 kilometres—does not pose a major challenge, particularly when compared with similar projects worldwide. He added that, unlike some longer or offshore pipelines, the TSGP will run through relatively stable areas on a route that is largely overland. Moreover, burying the pipeline underground would reduce risks linked to adverse weather and environmental disruption.
The American specialist also addressed security concerns. While the Saharan region raises fears due to the terrorist threat, he noted that Algeria has solid expertise in managing security, particularly in the Sahel. According to him, Sonatrach has the know-how required to secure the pipeline, as well as the human and financial resources needed to deliver the project.
“Sonatrach has made enormous progress internationally and now has the capacity to manage this type of infrastructure,” he added. He also said the TSGP is designed to strengthen economic and political ties between North African countries and Europe, while boosting intra-African cooperation—particularly with Nigeria and Tunisia.
Morocco’s ambitions have taken yet another blow. Algeria has been discussing this project since 2002; but because it sat in drawers for years, amid false starts and a lack of political will, Rabat quite reasonably believed it could push its own pipeline project forward. On paper, the 2016 plan looked even more impressive than the TSGP: a 5,000-kilometre route (the world’s longest offshore gas pipeline) and 13 countries to be supplied by the infrastructure—an economic undertaking, but also a political and diplomatic one.
However, Morocco has run into the key obstacle: money—far less of an issue for Algeria. What is more, a large part of the project relies on existing infrastructure in two countries that are major hydrocarbon producers. From that point on, the Moroccans can no longer compete.
What's happening in Tunisia?
Subscribe to our Youtube channel for updates.
