The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on U.S. trade partners are set to weigh heavily on global economic activity, warns the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which has adopted a more pessimistic outlook on global growth—particularly in the United States.
“The global economic environment has become significantly more challenging,” acknowledged Mathias Cormann, Secretary-General of the OECD, during a press conference last Tuesday at the organization’s headquarters in Paris, citing the impact of renewed tariff policies.
On the same day, the OECD released its latest Economic Outlook, confirming a projected slowdown in global GDP growth over the coming years.
Following an estimated increase of 3.3% in 2024, global economic growth is expected to decline to 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026.
These forecasts represent a downward revision of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, compared to the figures published in March.
The adjustment is largely due to the continuation of existing tariffs as of mid-May, despite unresolved legal disputes among several countries.
The OECD notes that these trade barriers—combined with tighter financial conditions, weakening business and consumer confidence, and growing political uncertainty—could place significant strain on overall economic growth.
The U.S. economy, a key engine of global growth, is expected to experience a marked deceleration.
Growth in the United States is now forecast at 1.6% for this year—0.6 percentage points lower than previous projections.
At the same time, inflation expectations for the U.S. have been revised upward to 3.2%, compared to an initial forecast of 2.8%, despite downward trends observed in several other G20 countries.
In light of these challenges, the OECD urges governments to exercise caution and implement well-calibrated economic policies to avoid a prolonged global slowdown.
The specter of weaker growth and persistent inflation calls for heightened vigilance in an increasingly unstable geopolitical and economic landscape.
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