The Central Bank of Tunisia projects significant growth of 5.1% in the agricultural sector in 2025, driven by favorable weather conditions after a difficult 2023 season that saw a sharp contraction of 16.3%. In its annual report for 2024, released midweek, the bank highlighted that improved climate conditions are paving the way for a strong production rebound.
Higher Cereal and Olive Oil Production
According to the projections, cereal harvests are expected to rise by 58%, reaching around 18.2 million quintals compared to 11.5 million quintals last season. Olive oil production is also set to increase sharply, reaching 330,000 tons compared to 220,000 tons in 2023. These results would further strengthen Tunisia’s position among the leading Mediterranean producers and exporters.
Industry Recovery and Tourism Boost
The positive trend is not limited to agriculture. The Central Bank anticipates industrial growth of 3.3%, supported by the resilience of export-oriented manufacturing industries and a rebound in the mining sector, with phosphate output expected to rise alongside new investments.
The services sector is also projected to expand by 2.8%, primarily thanks to tourism. Tunisia is targeting a record 11 million tourist arrivals this season, up from 10.3 million in 2023.
Overall Economic Growth of 3.2% in 2025
Combining these sectoral performances, the Central Bank forecasts an overall national economic growth rate of 3.2% in 2025. This outlook relies on stronger agricultural output, resilient industry, and the continued momentum of services and tourism, which together should reinforce the stability of the Tunisian economy.
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