The Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT), meeting on February 11, 2026, decided to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 7.00%. The decision comes against a backdrop of gradually moderating inflation, both internationally and domestically, alongside mixed developments in external balances.
Global Inflation Slows Cautiously
At the international level, inflation continued its downward trend in January 2026, despite a slow rebound in the prices of major commodities and raw materials. In light of uncertainties surrounding trade policies and price outlooks, central banks in major economies opted to maintain the status quo at their most recent monetary policy meetings.
This climate of global monetary caution helped frame the BCT’s decision, as the international environment remains marked by structural uncertainties.
Inflation Eases to 4.8% in January
Domestically, inflation edged down slightly in January 2026 to 4.8%, after stabilizing at 4.9% over the previous three months. This development confirms the ongoing process of gradual disinflation.
The decline was driven in part by slower growth in administered prices, which fell to 0.6%, compared with 0.8% in December 2025. This trend reflects the continued freeze on most administered prices, which account for a significant share of the consumer basket.
In addition, the pace of increase in fresh food prices eased, dropping from 11.2% in December 2025 to 10.3% in January 2026, supported by improved supply conditions for several products.
By contrast, core inflation—excluding fresh food and administered prices—continued its gradual rise. It climbed from a low of 4.3% in September 2025 to 4.9% in January 2026. This upward movement is largely attributable to the fading base effect linked to the sharp contraction in domestic olive oil prices recorded in 2025.
Current Account Deficit Widens in 2025
On the external front, Tunisia’s current account deficit reached 4.35 billion dinars in 2025, equivalent to -2.5% of GDP, compared with 2.576 billion dinars, or -1.6% of GDP, a year earlier.
The widening deficit was primarily driven by a deterioration in the trade balance. However, this trend was partially offset by stronger labor income inflows and higher tourism receipts.
Foreign Exchange Reserves on the Rise
A positive signal emerged from the country’s foreign exchange position. Reserves continued to strengthen gradually, reaching 25.8 billion dinars as of February 10, 2026—equivalent to 109 days of imports. By comparison, reserves stood at 23.3 billion dinars, or 102 days of imports, a year earlier.
This improvement enhances Tunisia’s external resilience and provides a source of macroeconomic stability in an international environment that remains volatile.
A Prudent and Consistent Monetary Policy
In light of these developments, the BCT’s Board of Directors considers it necessary to continue supporting the ongoing disinflation process in order to bring inflation back toward its long-term average.
Accordingly, it decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 7.00%, favoring a cautious and gradual monetary policy approach aimed at preserving macroeconomic balances while supporting the steady stabilization of prices.
