Speaking to Tunisie Numérique, economist Ridha Chkoundali addressed the data provided by the National Institute of Statistics concerning the drop in Tunisia’s trade deficit by 23.5% during the first months of 2024. He noted that the presentation of this data, is expected to bring good news, as the deficit has declined. Commercially, this implies that there is no longer as much pressure on financing the deficit with hard currency assets, therefore providing comfort in asset management at the central bank level.
The economist added that this fact furthermore confirms that Tunisia is now able to repay its debts without any issues, explaining that this fall during the current year is primarily due to two reasons. The first reason is the growth in olive oil exports, which increased by 110%, and the second reason is the recording of a trade surplus with two countries in the Maghreb, namely Libya, as the surplus attained 500 million dinars, and Morocco it amounted to 100 million dinars, which requires intensifying trade exchanges with the two countries.
However, he noted that this decline in the level of the trade deficit, from 6.2 billion dinars during the first four months of 2023 to 4.8 billion dinars during the first four months of 2024, was not a result of export development, which only grew by 4.8%, compared to a 7% rise during the same period last year. Rather, it was due to a marked decline in the level of imports overall, which amounted to -1.8% compared to 7% in the same period in 2023.
The speaker explained that imports did not fall at the level of consumer goods, but rather at the level of imports of raw materials linked to manufacturing, and the decline was around 9%, which constitutes a great risk because the state is adopting the same policy, which is to pay off debts, but at the expense of austerity in the country. Supplying raw materials and semi-finished materials that are required for production, particularly since the Tunisian economy is linked to the outside world at the level of production.
He said that this adopted policy resulted, during the past year, in an economic contraction of 0.4%, compared to an increased rate estimated at 1.8%, which caused an increase in the unemployment rate and the state also lost, at the budget level, 2 billion dinars of resources coming from collections.
He emphasised that this trend will cause a decrease in growth, an increase in unemployment, and the loss of more fiscal resources, which will cause the state to turn to borrowing from abroad, which is what was included in the 2024 budget.
He cautioned that the most dangerous point in the trade deficit registered during the first 4 months of this year is the value of the energy deficit, which is considered extremely large, as it reached 4 billion dinars out of a total of 4.8 billion dinars, in addition to a decline in phosphate exports by 26.3%. The material is considered a major source of hard currency in Tunisia.
The economist suggested that the remaining amount, which is 4 million dinars from the value of the loan that the state received from the Central Bank, which was in the range of 7 thousand billion, and which it paid 3 thousand billion to redeem 280 million euros, be directed to renewing machines at the level The Gafsa Phosphate Company and the Railway Company so that phosphate can retrieve its position and provide significant amounts of hard currency to Tunisia.
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