Weather conditions in Tunisia are expected to remain stable through the end of the weekend before a shift toward atmospheric disturbances early March, according to environmental and climate expert Adel Hentati.
Speaking on Friday, February 27, 2026, Hentati explained that the country’s weather this week has been influenced by a strong subtropical high-pressure system known as the Azores High. This system currently dominates large parts of the eastern Atlantic Ocean, Western Europe, and sections of the western Mediterranean.
Spring-Like Conditions With Noticeable Temperature Gaps
The dominance of the Azores High has created relatively stable and spring-like conditions across Tunisia. However, Hentati noted a marked contrast between daytime and nighttime temperatures. While daytime readings have been above seasonal averages, nights remain relatively cool.
According to regional forecasts from Arab Weather and the European Copernicus Climate Monitoring Service, this stable pattern is expected to weaken between Saturday and Monday. A low-pressure system moving from polar regions could push the high-pressure system southward, paving the way for changing weather conditions.
Rainfall and Cooler Temperatures Expected
Beginning Monday and Tuesday, atmospheric disturbances are likely to move across the Maghreb region. The system is expected to affect Morocco first, then Algeria, before reaching Tunisia. This could bring light rainfall and a general drop in temperatures.
Hentati emphasized that rainfall amounts and wind speeds for next week remain uncertain. Official forecasts from Tunisia’s National Institute of Meteorology are expected to provide more precise updates in the coming days.
Agricultural Calendar and “Jamrat Al-Ma”
The expert also referred to the traditional agricultural calendar, noting that Friday marks the onset of “Jamrat Al-Ma” (the warming of water), following the earlier “Jamrat Al-Hawa” (the warming of air).
In agricultural tradition, the warming of water signals a gradual increase in water temperatures, considered favorable for the start of the new farming cycle. This period typically coincides with plant flowering, tree pollination, and the development of leaves and fruit.
However, Hentati cautioned that the traditional calendar, once known for its accuracy, has become less predictable due to climate change and global warming, which have introduced new and unusual weather patterns.
Unusual Temperature Spike in Europe
Highlighting broader climatic volatility, Hentati pointed to a recent unusual event in Europe, where the Azores High settled earlier than usual. Temperatures surged dramatically from –2°C to nearly 30°C within just four days — a sharp fluctuation that underscores increasing climate instability.
As Tunisia transitions into March, the current stable weather pattern is expected to give way to a more dynamic phase, reflecting broader regional climate variability.
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