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Add TN as a preferred source on GoogleThe week was marked by a renewed escalation in tensions between Moscow and NATO, new European sanctions linked to the transfer of Ukrainian children, and advances claimed by Kyiv in the Donbas. At the Valdai Forum, Vladimir Putin once again referred to the possibility of using Russia’s entire arsenal in the event of an attack, while the Ukrainian army says it has reclaimed 176 km² since launching its “Vivaldi” operation in the Donetsk region.
- Vladimir Putin warned that Russia could use “all weapons” at its disposal if its territory, particularly Kaliningrad, were directly attacked.
- NATO called on Moscow to end its nuclear threats and said it currently sees no imminent threat against its territory.
- The European Union sanctioned 10 individuals and 17 entities over their involvement in the deportation and forced transfer of Ukrainian children.
- Ukrainian authorities said that more than 2,600 children have been able to return to Ukraine, out of around 20,000 cases documented by Kyiv.
- In the Donbas, Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps says it has reclaimed 176 km², captured more than 250 Russian soldiers and inflicted more than 5,000 killed or wounded since the beginning of the “Vivaldi” operation.
Putin puts the nuclear threat back at the center of the standoff with NATO
During his address at the Valdai Forum on October 1, Vladimir Putin warned that Russia could consider using “all weapons” at its disposal if its territory came under direct attack.
The Russian president specifically mentioned Kaliningrad, a heavily militarized Russian exclave located between Poland and Lithuania.
Putin recalled that France and the United Kingdom also possess nuclear weapons, while asserting that Russia has military systems that its adversaries do not possess.
At the same time, he said that Moscow had “no intention of attacking anyone.”
These remarks follow a warning issued by Moscow to NATO several days earlier. Russia had said that an attempt to isolate Kaliningrad could lead it to consider using its nuclear arsenal.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte responded by stressing that the Alliance is defensive and calling on Moscow to end its nuclear threats.
He nevertheless clarified that NATO does not currently consider a Russian attack on its territory to be imminent.
This Russian rhetoric is part of a strategy aimed at influencing European public opinion and weakening Western support for Kyiv. Airspace violations, cyberattacks, allegations of sabotage and influence operations are also cited among the instruments attributed to Moscow.
In recent weeks, several European governments have expressed concern. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, in particular, warned on October 1 that Europe must prepare for new Russian hybrid operations, particularly in the cyber and drone fields. Moscow regularly rejects Western accusations regarding acts of sabotage in Europe.
Deported Ukrainian children: EU sanctions 27 individuals and entities
Another major development of the week came on September 28, when the Council of the European Union adopted sanctions against 10 individuals and 17 additional entities.
Brussels considers them responsible for, or involved in, the deportation and forced transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia or to occupied Ukrainian territories, as well as in programs of assimilation, indoctrination or militarized education.
Among the sanctioned entities are the Moscow City Tourism Committee, tourism and children’s leisure companies, as well as camps and sports centers.
The head of the Russian Republic of Tatarstan, Rustam Minnikhanov, is also among those targeted.
The sanctions include asset freezes and, for individuals, a ban on entering or transiting through EU territory.
The EU Council estimates that nearly 20,500 Ukrainian children have been deported or forcibly transferred since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion. This figure corresponds to documented cases and does not necessarily establish the actual total number.
More than 2,600 children have returned to Ukraine
Meanwhile, international efforts to locate and bring back the children are continuing.
At an international conference held in Toronto on September 28 and 29, Ukrainian authorities said that more than 2,600 children had now been returned to Ukraine.
More than 50 countries signed a commitment aimed at strengthening cooperation to locate and return Ukrainian children and other civilians in Russia or in occupied territories.
Russia rejects accusations of systematic abduction and says it relocated children to protect them from combat zones.
International organizations, however, have documented cases of transfers and deportations from occupied Ukrainian territories. A report published by the UN Human Rights Office in March 2026 notably described measures imposed by occupation authorities that deprived some civilians of a genuine choice between remaining where they were and returning home.
In the Donbas, Kyiv claims to have reclaimed 176 km²
On the military front, one of the week’s main developments concerns the “Vivaldi” operation, conducted by Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps in the Lyman sector, north of the Donetsk region.
President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the 3rd Corps’ command post on September 30 to review the results of the operation’s first three phases.
According to figures released by the Ukrainian military, its forces have reclaimed 176 km² of territory since the beginning of the offensive.
Kyiv also claims that Russian forces suffered more than 5,000 killed or wounded during the three phases and that more than 250 Russian soldiers were taken prisoner.
Armored vehicles turned into kamikaze robots
The operation has also attracted attention because of the methods used.
Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps says it converted former Soviet armored vehicles, including BTR-60s, into unmanned ground vehicles loaded with explosives, which were used to destroy fortified Russian positions before infantry assaults.
Kyiv also says it struck drone-launch positions belonging to the Russian “Rubicon” unit.
According to the Ukrainian command’s account, the third phase of “Vivaldi” partly relied on a diversion maneuver designed to draw Russian reserves toward a secondary axis before concentrating the attack on the Nove sector.
Russia officially disputes the scale of the gains announced by Kyiv. However, the Institute for the Study of War and its partner Critical Threats noted that several Russian military bloggers close to the front had themselves acknowledged difficulties in the area and criticized the Russian Defense Ministry for downplaying setbacks.
Zelensky announced that planning for a fourth phase of the “Vivaldi” operation was now underway.
A week marked by two forms of pressure
The events of the week illustrate two parallel dynamics.
On the battlefield, Kyiv is seeking to demonstrate that it retains the ability to regain the initiative locally despite Russian pressure in the east of the country.
At the international level, the European Union continues a sanctions strategy targeting not only Russia’s economic and military sectors, but also officials and organizations involved in policies implemented in occupied territories.
At the same time, the increased references by Russia to nuclear weapons and tensions surrounding Kaliningrad have brought the risk of a direct confrontation between Moscow and NATO back to the forefront.
For the Alliance, such a confrontation is not considered imminent. However, military incidents, hybrid operations and nuclear rhetoric are making escalation risk management an increasingly central issue in the war in Ukraine.
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