Economist Aram Belhaj said on Monday, March 2, 2026, in remarks to Tunisie Numérique, that the economic impact of the Iran–U.S.–Israel war is already visible, particularly through the jump in oil prices, amid growing uncertainty surrounding global crude supply chains.
Belhaj stressed that any war involving Gulf states inevitably raises concerns over strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Gibraltar—key corridors through which oil flows to world markets, including Tunisia. He noted that even if supply routes remain technically open, market anxiety and disruption risks can still drive global prices higher.
Two potential crises: routes and prices
According to Belhaj, the conflict could trigger two overlapping crises: one tied to oil shipping and supply routes, and another linked to the global price of crude itself. The scale of the shock, he added, will largely depend on how long the war lasts.
“If an international solution ends the conflict quickly, oil prices could return to previous levels,” he said. “But if the war drags on—which appears more likely—the price per barrel could move above $80 and even reach $120.”
Belhaj also warned that the impact will depend on the conflict’s geographic expansion. He pointed out that tensions are no longer limited to Iran versus the United States and Israel, but have also affected other countries such as Qatar, Bahrain, and Iraq—an evolution that could make the economic outlook far more dangerous.
What it means for Tunisia
On Tunisia, Belhaj distinguished between direct and indirect effects.
The direct impact would be felt through higher energy subsidies. Any rise in oil import costs would increase the state’s compensation (subsidy) burden, putting additional pressure on public finances and potentially widening the budget deficit.
The indirect impact would be a contraction in investment. A wider regional war would weigh on investor confidence, disrupt capital flows, and weaken the broader investment climate—effects Tunisia could feel even if it remains outside the Gulf theater.
Who benefits?
Belhaj argued that oil-producing companies and exporting countries could gain from higher crude prices, citing potential beneficiaries such as Algeria and Saudi Arabia. However, he cautioned that rising oil prices do not automatically translate into positive outcomes for exporters, since prolonged conflict and shrinking investment can also hurt growth and stability.
Ultimately, the duration and regional spillover of the war will be decisive in determining the scale of the economic shock—both for Tunisia and for the global economy.
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