Weather alerts often spark debate and public questioning, especially when announced phenomena turn out to be less severe than initially expected. To shed light on how weather forecasts work and their limitations, environmental and climate expert Adel Hentati spoke to Tunisie Numérique, offering a scientific explanation of the issue.
Forecasts based on observation and satellite data
Hentati explained that meteorological information provided to the public is not absolute certainty, but rather scientific forecasts based on detailed observations and satellite data. These satellites deliver real-time images that help analyze air masses and atmospheric depressions, which play a crucial role in weather evolution.
In the Mediterranean region, climatologists take into account several complex factors. Among them are cold, humid air masses from polar regions, particularly the North Pole, moving southward across Europe, the Atlas Mountains, and the Mediterranean Sea. At the same time, hot and dry air masses originate from the south, especially the Sahara.
Precise calculations, yet never absolute
Using satellite imagery, experts can estimate the potential impact of these air masses on wind patterns, rainfall, and atmospheric disturbances. However, Hentati stressed that certain parameters—such as wind strength and direction—cannot be calculated with complete accuracy.
“The announced values remain approximate,” he noted, adding that an essential factor helps narrow the gap between forecasts and reality: knowledge of a region’s climatic history. Long-term experience with local weather patterns allows climatologists to refine their analyses and better anticipate possible scenarios.
Useful alerts, but never 100% guaranteed
The expert concluded by emphasizing that weather alerts are never fully reliable. They represent probable scenarios based on available data at a given moment. According to Adel Hentati, forecast reliability may reach around 60%, which is still sufficient to justify vigilance and preventive measures.
What's happening in Tunisia?
Subscribe to our Youtube channel for updates.
