Tunisia-Upcoming heat wave: Weather expert clarifies whether 2024 summer will be hotter than previous one [Video]

In a follow-up bulletin today, Wednesday, the National Institute of Meteorology noted that temperatures will see a noticeable rise beginning tomorrow, Thursday, and may surpass the normal averages for June by 13 degrees in some areas. In this context, distinguished professor in geography and specialist  Amer Behba shared insight with Tunisie Numérique regarding the weather, Behba highlighted the substantial rise in temperatures that the country is experiencing, saying that it varies between normal and high…

What will the temperature be like during the next 5 days?

Our speaker clarified that during the past six days, temperatures were at normal levels, and cold currents were experienced, particularly on Monday and Tuesday. He underscored that this situation will change starting tomorrow, as the mass of cold air will fall, and Tunisia will enter a heat wave lasting four or five days, until Monday.

He noted that the temperature will be high, particularly tomorrow, Thursday, with temperatures ranging between 40 and 43 degrees Celsius in the northern regions, such as the governorates of Beja, Kef, Jendouba, and Siliana. Temperatures may surpass 47 degrees in southern Tunisia, specifically in the  Tozeur, Kebili, and in the Berma region. It is also possible to register 42 degrees in the governorate of Kairouan.

This temperature may witness a greater rise on Friday, reaching 48 and 49 degrees in Tozeur, Kebili and El Barma, while it will drop slightly in the north and centre. As for the end of the week, the same pattern will continue almost and will be higher in the western regions of Beja, Jendouba, El Kef, Siliana… Kasserine, Gafsa, Tozeur and Kebili.

The weather expert confirmed that beginning Monday, temperatures will drop, in the north of the country and also in some central regions, to keep the same height in southern Tunisia and also in other central regions, such as Kairouan, western Sfax, and western Mahdia, and the temperature will decline significantly starting Tuesday.

Reasons for the significant rise in temperatures in recent years.

I carefully attribute the grounds for this important shift in temperatures, which were normal in earlier years, to Tunisia’s location in the south of the Mediterranean and near the Sahara Desert. Further, Tunisia includes the African highland, an atmospheric high that sometimes extends to Italy. This highland contributes to increasing temperatures by producing hot southern desert currents, causing hot air masses to rise and impact Tunisian regions.

He added that the Azores Ridge is also active in Tunisia, but during the summer, the African Ridge is the most influential. The African Ridge now affects Tunisia to a more significant extent, raising the intensity and duration of heat waves over the last 10 years. During the summer of 2023, temperatures surpassing 50 degrees Celsius were registered. There is no denying that there was a significant rise in temperatures in previous years, with temperatures reaching forty degrees, but the heat wave periods were shorter.

High temperatures have a significant impact on humans

In connection with this point, the professor of geography emphasised that the negative effect of climate fluctuations on human life cannot be ignored, as heat waves cause fires, and every year hundreds of fires are documented and a loss of between 5 and 6 thousand hectares of agricultural land is recorded and forests, in addition to the fact that high temperatures may cause numerous individuals to suffer from sunstroke and cause deaths, which is something that Saudi Arabia saw during the Hajj period and caused the death of more than 1,100 pilgrims.

He also noted that the consumption of electricity and water during the summer, particularly in light of high temperatures, is higher, and accordingly, it is necessary to uphold and rationalize consumption so as not to record frequent interruptions in the electricity supply and drinking water.

Will 2024 be hotter than 2023?

Concerning this topic, which has sparked controversy, the speaker confirmed that according to the United Nations and many global centres specialized in climate change and natural risks, the year 2024 will be hot, but the chance of exceeding the maximum temperatures for the year 2023 has not been confirmed, as last year witnessed significant heat waves. For example, Tunisia witnessed extremely high temperatures over 3 weeks, breaking records exceeding 50 degrees in some areas, and it may be hard to record the same strength of this wave.