Tunis Survey, a leading expert in online surveys and digital studies, has just disclosed the outcomes of its poll on the voting intentions of Tunisians.
This poll is based on a self-administered online survey which was conducted from October 19th to November 2nd, 2020. Its goal is to identify the voting intentions of Tunisians through the principal question: If the Tunisian legislative elections were held tomorrow, which political party would you vote for?
This question was joined with the declared preferences of respondents to the 2019 legislative elections.
For this first wave, the current sample number after the screening is 1,484 respondents.
The survey was valuable in learning and establishes a strong trend of “volatile” voters. These ‘Churners’ voters have decided to switch parties and not to make the same choice in the 2019 parliamentary elections.
The main figures to remember:
Voting intentions:
- 42.7% of respondents do not yet know which party to vote for.
- 21.9% will vote for the PDL if the legislative elections take place tomorrow.
- 13.1% will vote for Ennahda.
- 8.8% intend to vote for Karama Coalition.
- 3.8% will vote for the Democratic Current.
Churn’s intention or attrition:
- 88.6% of those who voted for the Qalb Tounes party in 2019 will not vote for it again.
- 88.5% do not intend to renew their 2019 pick of Tahya Tounes.
- 74.4% will not vote again for the Democratic Current.
- 40.8% of the voters of Karama Coalition in 2019 will no longer vote for this party.
Churner yes but towards which party?
- For Qalb Tounes’s churner, 67.7% intend to choose the PDL.
- 48.2% of Tahya Tounes churners intend to vote for the PDL.
- 71% of Democratic Current churners don’t know who to vote for.
- 43.8% of Ennahdha’s leaving voters stated they intended to shift to Karama Coalition.
This attrition (Churn) illustrates a fragility of the electoral bases of the parties which are continually decaying. Like what in politics nothing can be taken for granted.
The full scan can be ordered at www.tunisia-survey.com.
What's happening in Tunisia?
Subscribe to our Youtube channel for updates.
