By overturning the entire table (dissolution of Parliament and anticipated legislative elections on June 30), President Emmanuel Macron has made two extremely risky bets and he is sentenced to win one or the other. The first: French voters, ignited by the bitter failures of the far right in the cities it has managed, are running towards the presidential majority and reinforcing it to complete the reforms on the table, all frozen by the legislative elections (agriculture, Education…).
The second bet: Cohabitation with the result being the mid-flight burst of the National Rally (RN) after their young and inexperienced Prime Minister, Jordan Bardella, showed his inability to solve France’s economic puzzle . According to the first polls following the resounding announcement by the Head of State, the latter is on the verge of losing his first bet and by a lot.
A cohort of polls, all disastrous for Macron
In the first Harris Interactive-Toluna survey, performed on behalf of Challenges, M6, and RTL, the Rassemblement National (RN) captured 34% of voting intentions. The United Left garnered 22%, down from the 25.7% they obtained in the 2022 legislative elections. The presidential camp saw a substantial decline, securing only 19%, compared to 25.8% in the previous election. Les Républicains (LR) – the right – managed no more than 9%, tying with “various left” candidates, such as “dissidents of the Socialist Party,” who improved from 6.4% two years ago. Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella would dominate the vote if it took place this Tuesday, June 11.
According to Harris Interactive, the RN would go from 89 elected to the National Assembly to a range of 235-265 seats. The presidential majority would discover itself with 125-155 seats of MPs against 249 currently, the Nupes (New Popular Ecological and Social Union) of 115 to 145 elected officials (153 currently) and LR 40 to 55 deputies (74 currently).
The OpinionWay poll for CNews, Europe 1 and Le Journal du Dimanche gives around the same trends: the RN 33% of voting intentions, Nupes 23% and the presidential majority 18%.
Lessons from the explosive cohabitations of 1986 and 1997
So there you have it, even though 61% of those questioned are in favour of dissolving Parliament (with 38% disapproving), this doesn’t necessarily signify their votes will go to Macron’s party. This situation remains a considerable gamble for the President of the Republic. Given the current momentum of the far right, it will be extremely challenging to block their path to power. In 2002, Jean-Marie Le Pen was visibly unprepared to assume the presidential role, as his expression of dismay showed upon learning of his qualification for the second round of the election against Jacques Chirac.
The President of the Republic will do everything to wear Bardella to the limit, as François Mitterrand did to Chirac in 1986. A treatment that Chirac reproduced with Lionel Jospin in 1997, a terrible revenge on the socialist Prime Minister; he was burned in the first round of the 2002 presidential election. The left never healed from this political cataclysm, despite the victory of François Hollande in 2012. Moreover, he only served one term and was erased to let Macron pass. The latter will be completed in 2027 but he will do everything to sabotage Marine Le Pen’s plans and ensure succession to his camp.
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