Trump’s historic error for which West will pay dearly: Iran has what it takes to make several nuclear bombs

The demise of the Vienna Agreement, a cornerstone effort to restrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions, is widely attributed to former U.S. President Donald Trump. In 2018, Trump decisively withdrew the United States from the agreement, overlooking years of diplomatic efforts led by his predecessor, Barack Obama. Trump’s reason for this withdrawal was the allegation that Iran was not adhering to the terms of the agreement, accusing Tehran of duplicity and non-compliance. Later, Trump reinstated stringent sanctions that have severely impacted the Iranian economy.

In reply to these actions, the Iranian regime concluded that with little left to lose, pursuing nuclear weapons would force the international community to engage with them, possibly gaining the respect and attention they sought. European nations, on the other hand, largely adopted a strategy of imposing harsh sanctions, hoping to stir public dissent against the regime and ultimately lead to its downfall. Nevertheless, despite these efforts, the Iranian leadership has stayed in power, seemingly unaffected by both economic sanctions and public protests.

Now, with the Iranian youth and the international community confronting the stark reality of a tangible nuclear threat, the situation appears dire. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and its Director General, Rafael Grossi, discover themselves in a challenging position. With a meeting of the Board of Governors looming, Grossi’s calls for Tehran to “cooperate fully” seem to have little effect in alleviating tensions or fostering cooperation. The IAEA encounters the delicate task of addressing Iran’s public statements regarding its nuclear capabilities, which raise important concerns about the veracity of Iran’s formal declarations and the international community’s ability to address and mitigate this escalating threat effectively.

Terribly worrying data

Officially the Islamic Republic is still not aiming to build an atomic bomb, but it is what is not officially said that terrifies the IAEA. What the regime cannot say is the political class which is in charge, confided a diplomatic source. For the rest, the facts talk for themselves. According to the latest records from the UN body, stocks climbed to 5,525.5 kg on February 10, 2024 (compared to 4,486.8 kg at the end of October). Which is more than 27 times the limit authorized by the late Vienna Agreement.

Aside from the swelling of its stocks, Iran has breached the ceiling set at 3.67%, the rate used in nuclear power plants to produce electricity. Tehran is now sitting on 712.2 kg of material enriched at 20% (compared to 567.1 kg 3 months previously). Though as for the 60% threshold, a few steps from the 90% required to design an atomic weapon, Tehran has lowered the stock to 121.5 kilos (compared to 128.3 kg previously). “They decided to carry out a dilution operation at the start of the year (…). Perhaps they do not want to increase tensions with the Western Front, comments the same source. How long before Tehran crosses the rubicund?

What will Trump do if he returns in 2024?

The West is decreasing its warlike positions, just a few principled denunciations of Iran’s secrecy. No resolution has been made since November 2022, yet there is no lack of road trips. Yesterday, Monday, February 26, the USA stated it was “extremely disturbed by the continued expansion of Iran’s nuclear program, without any credible civilian justification,” according to diplomatic spokesperson Matthew Miller. “The overall picture remains extremely dark,” says Eric Brewer, of the American research institute Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). And “no diplomatic route seems to be able to stop the escalation shortly,” he added…

What will Trump do if American voters put him back in the White House next November? No one knows, what is sure is that his 4 years in power have brought nothing but chaos to the world, as evidenced by this tangled situation in the Middle East which we owe in large part to the Peace Accords. Abraham, signed in 2020, a document which put all the eggs in the Israeli basket and blocked all the horizons of the Palestinians. Trump is radicalism and extremism, whatever the cost to the planet.