Speaking to Tunisie Numérique, economist Ridha Chkoundali said that the battle between Russia and Ukraine will not only have repercussions on grain prices but likewise on oil prices. He indicated that the state budget for 2022 was fixed according to the old price of a barrel worth 75 dollars while the price of a barrel today surpassed 100 dollars.
According to him, each dollar more than the price of a barrel costs Tunisia 129 billion dinars, pinpointing that this amount has already been exceeded. Chkoundali added in the same line of ideas that the world demand for cereals will be more powerful in the forthcoming days. As a result, prices will grow further. According to him, the increase in cereal prices will have important repercussions on the State, particularly since Tunisia stays extremely dependent on cereal imports.
Our speaker wondered how the State will function in the next period in such conditions. “The battle could push the Tunisian government to raise fuel prices every month instead of once every 3 months,” he added. Chkoundali indicated that rising fuel prices will no doubt impact the prices of other products including; electricity and gas.
He also confirmed that the strong demand for cereals will further increase prices worldwide. “Countries well rated by Moody’s will be privileged to source cereals, identifying that Tunisia is at the bottom of the list, according to the latest ranking from the rating agency Moody’s. This could generate a potential shortage of some basic food items,” he said. As a result, the Tunisian government would be compelled to lift subsidies on basic materials. Chkoundali also remarked on the strategy of the Tunisian government to deal with certain files, considering that it has no strategy and that it works day by day.
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