A Looming Crisis in Global Chocolate Supply

The global chocolate industry is currently encountering an unparalleled crisis, mainly due to a considerable downturn in the cocoa harvest in Ivory Coast, the world’s leading cocoa producer. This season’s forecasted harvest is the most down it has been in five years, raising alarms throughout the sector. As of March 10, since the season began last October, the estimated arrival of beans in Abidjan and San Pedro is approximately 1.2 million tonnes, marking a stark reduction of 500,000 tonnes from the previous year.

This drastic decline can be attributed to several complex factors. Climate change, resulting in erratic weather conditions, has severely affected supply. Further, the spread of “Swollen Shoot,” a viral disease impacting cocoa trees, and the ageing of cocoa plantations, have exacerbated the decline in production. These elements have collectively led to a critical shortage, posing a significant threat to the global availability of chocolate.

In reaction to this crisis, the Coffee-Cocoa Council has issued a warning against exporters engaging in illicit practices to navigate the shortage. Some exporters have been found paying overly high prices to producers to secure cocoa volumes or hoarding stocks to profit from escalating global prices. The Council has made it clear that such behaviours will encounter strict penalties, including substantial fines and the possibility of revoking export licenses for repeated violations.

The repercussions of this looming supply crisis are beginning to manifest, with cocoa prices on international markets undergoing a rise. This upward trend in prices is anticipated to persist as supply tightens further. Chocolate manufacturers worldwide may be required to increase their prices, impacting consumers both financially and in terms of taste experience.

This crisis looms larger as the smaller cocoa harvest in April approaches, with a secured price of 1.52 euros per kilogram set for beans purchased from producers. The decisions made in the forthcoming months will be pivotal in alleviating the crisis’s impact and securing a steady chocolate supply for the future.